YardClub — MLB HR Picks to your inbox

87%

Ladders that close all-hit Every player landed a HR before the cycle ended

94%

Ladders that finish profitable Net positive when the cycle wraps

The ladder structure is built so earlier hits fund later attempts. Even when a pick misses, the math is designed to keep the cycle in the green — and the numbers show it. Only 6% of cycles finish underwater.

How it works

I pick the players

Each morning I run the model, review the candidates, and lock the day's ladder.

You get the email

One email before first pitch. Players, stake in your units, best book, target return.

You place the bets

Bet at your sportsbook at the unit you chose. Track wins and the ladder together.

Pick your unit

How much are you willing to lose on a worst-case ladder cycle? $

This is the worst-case number — it only plays out about 6% of the time. The other 94% of cycles you won't come close to investing this much.

Suggested unit: $5

Suggested unit = your worst-case-loss budget ÷ 60. Sixty is the realistic cap on a full no-hit 7-day ladder at typical tier escalation. You can change your unit at any time; the change takes effect at the start of your next ladder.

Track record

+1,400%

Live 2025 (real money)

+637%

2024-25 backtest

+262%

2023-25 walk-forward

25% per-bet hit rate · 87% ladder-cycle hit rate · 1,390 simulated bets · max drawdown 78% on the walk-forward run. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

FAQ

What if I miss a day?

You only lose on this if you don't see the cycle through. Each day's stake is funded by the assumption that earlier hits paid off — bailing mid-cycle locks in the loss. Pick a unit you can comfortably ride through a cold week.

Which sportsbook should I use?

The daily email tells you where the best line was at lock. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, ESPN BET, and Fanatics all rotate through the picks regularly — shop around if you can.

How do I cancel?

Reply STOP to any daily email, or email cancel@yardclub.org. Cancellation is effective immediately and no further charges occur.

Can I change my unit size later?

Yes. The change takes effect at the start of your next ladder, never mid-cycle. Your active ladder runs to completion at the unit it started with so the math stays consistent.

Is this investment advice?

No. These are my personal MLB home run prop bets, shared so you can tail at your own discretion. Real betting carries real risk; past performance is not a guarantee.